Beyond Europe: The “Fourth Wave”

Nationalism: The Global Umbrella

• The Conceptual Problem:
  • Nativism (xenophobic/ethnic) is central to the European far-right (Mudde, 2007).
  • But does it travel? In Latin America, immigration levels are often low.
• Reframing the Core (Jonge et al., 2024):
  • Instead of strict nativism, Nationalism serves as the broader global umbrella.
  • Global North: Focus on external threats (immigrants, Islam).
  • Global South: Focus on internal threats (corrupt elites, criminals, “anti-nationals”).
  • Key Insight: The “Other” shifts, but the exclusionary logic remains.

Mapping the Global Rise

Transnational Networks

• The Foro de Madrid (2020):
  • Led by Vox (Spain).
  • Narrative: Fighting the “threat of communism” (Grupo de Puebla).
  • Goal: Consolidate the “Iberosphere” through shared conservative values.
• CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference):
  • Originally US-centric, now a global network (Brazil, Japan, Hungary).
  • A hub for “copy-paste” electoral tactics and rhetoric.

Regional Puzzles

• Observation: Sudden rise of Milei (Argentina), Bolsonaro (Brazil), Bukele (El Salvador).
• The “Immigration Paradox” (Jonge et al., 2024):
  • Unlike Europe, immigration is not the primary driver.
  • Instead: Crime, corruption, and economic collapse.
  • The “Other” is the internal enemy (criminals, corrupt politicians) rather than the migrant.
• Religion: Massive role of the Evangelical Church (Doğan, 2025).

Case Study: Brazil (Bolsonaro)

• Organization: Weak party structure, highly personalist.
• Narrative: “Brazil above everything, God above all.”
• Welfare Strategy:
  • Inclusionary Logic: Used Bolsa Família (Auxílio Brasil) to maintain support among the poor.
  • Exclusionary Logic: Symbolic targeting of “enemies” (LGBTQ+, Leftists, NGOs).
• Democracy: Erosion through military co-optation and institutional bypass.

Case Study: Argentina (Milei)

• The “Anarcho-Capitalist” Far-Right:
  • High emphasis on market radicalism vs. the “Casta” (political elite).
  • Distinct from Europe: Not “welfare chauvinism” (protecting state benefits for natives) but a rejection of the state itself due to failure/corruption.
• The Market as the “People”:
  • Redefining the people through economic freedom rather than just national identity.
  • A radical shift from the traditional Peronist populist model.

The USA: American Exceptionalism No More?

• Cas Mudde (2022): The US is “Europeanizing” in its far-right manifestations.
• Mainstreaming: The Republican Party has been “captured” by far-right frames.
• The “Hungarian Model”: Explicit comparisons between Trump and Orbán.
  • Judicial capture
  • Media harassment
  • Discrediting electoral integrity

India: The BJP and Religious Populism

• The “Hindutva” Ideology:
  • Defining “The People” as Hindu; secularism as an “elite” imposition.
• The “Others”: Muslims, “anti-nationals” (academics, NGOs, liberals).
• Welfare & Inclusion:
  • The BJP uses social schemes to integrate lower-caste Hindus while explicitly excluding religious minorities (McDonnell & Cabrera, 2019).

The Theorisation Matrix (Recap)

Synthesis: Demand vs. Supply

• Demand (The Fuel):
  • Structural grievances (Economic vs. Cultural).
  • Modernization losers vs. Status anxiety.
• Supply (The Spark):
  • Charismatic leadership.
  • Party organization (Robust/Institutionalized in Europe vs. Personalist in LatAm).
  • Mainstream response (Normalisation vs. Cordon Sanitaire).

The Impact on Democracy

1. Normalization: Extreme ideas become “common sense”.
2. Polarization: “Us vs. Them” logic destroys democratic consensus.
3. Institutional Erosion: The “Frankenstate” — using democratic laws to kill democracy (Scheppele, 2013).

What’s Next?

• Technology: Radicalization through algorithmic echo chambers and AI.
• Climate Change: “Green” far-right (protecting our land) vs. Climate denialism.
• Gender: The backlash against “Gender Ideology” as a global unifying glue.

Assessment Reminders

• Final Essay: Due Thursday 16th April at 23:59.
• Use the theories we’ve discussed!
• Don’t just describe a case; theorise the variation.

Thank You!

Questions?